THE LAMMY DOCTRINE

A recent article in the Daily Mail referred to ‘Britain’s 65,000-ton leviathan facing down war-hungry Chinese despot’. Is that so?

The article reports on the HMS Prince of Wales, one of the UK’s two aircraft carriers, which is currently touring the Pacific with escort ships and taking part in Exercise Talisman Sabre off Australia and involving other numerous countries. This is all good stuff. A navy should tour and be seen and is a demonstration of military power. However, the Royal Navy has only 19 surface warships and the carriers do not have a full complement of aircraft.

Regarding the 5 per cent defence spending target, Healey said: ‘Will we hit that target? I’m absolutely confident we will. We signed up like the other 31 nations last month to that 5 per cent by 2035.’ The problem with this talk is that 2035 is a date not only beyond this parliament, but also the next one. It is not a commitment at all. Furthermore, the Chinese are believed to be planning to try and conquer Taiwan in 2027.

The Chinese navy has the world’s largest number of ships although the USA is still the largest navy when measured by tonnage (the USA’s ships are larger). China has three aircraft carriers with another under construction. The Chinese navy currently consists of around 370 ships and submarines. The USA’s consists of around 290 ships and submarines. The Royal Navy, once the world’s largest, has around 20 surface warships including both aircraft carriers.

The Chinese have deployed their navy into three aircraft carrier battle groups, only one of which will outnumber the Royal Navy in its entirety. The US carriers are at least double the size of the Royal Navy’s. The Chinese carriers are roughly the same size, although they intend to build bigger ones.

In the article, David Lammy aired his own views:

‘We see an indivisibility of security between the Indo-Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic. I have seen Iranian missiles shot into Kyiv. I’ve been in Beijing and challenged the Chinese about their dual-use technology [which can be used for both weapons and civilian purposes] that is shipped to Russia and fired at the Ukrainians. I’ve seen satellite images of DPRK [North Korean] troops engaged in battle on behalf of Russia against Ukraine, and of course we know that shells are making their way to Russia also from the Indo-Pacific. So the indivisibility is plain to see on a day-to-day basis.’

Lammy quoted former US National Security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, who, in a speech to the Washington think-tank The Hudson Institute last year, warned of the danger posed by a ‘grand coalition of China, Russia and perhaps Iran, an anti-hegemonic coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances’. Lammy warned: ‘This I think risks coming upon us.’

There is a threat posed by an alliance of Russia, Iran, China and North Korea acting in unison. But it does not follow that the UK should react by sending a tiny, under-equipped carrier battle group to the Pacific in response to a Chinese attack on Taiwan. Especially if the war with Russia in Ukraine is ongoing, or is recommenced. The UK needs to stop posturing and stop getting into wars it is too weak to fight.

As this blog has pointed out before, the USA is likely to concentrate its naval power in the Pacific in the event of Chinese aggression. That means it will withdraw the carrier battle groups currently in the Mediterranean and the Gulf, which have recently engaged the Houthis who had been interfering with shipping. The Royal Navy should be able to backfill the USA and ensure that the oil and gas supplies get to to Europe safely. This should be the aim.

The USA has also made clear, repeatedly, that it wants to reduce its commitment to Europe. This particularly affects Ukraine. The UK should focus on restoring the RAF to being the same size it was at the end of the Cold War, and hence secure the UK and establish air superiority over Europe, including Ukraine. The Continental European powers, including Ukraine, already outnumber Russia ground forces by around two to one. The UK should restrict its army’s involvement to Estonia where it has based a brigade.

Above all, the UK should avoid wasting money on expensive operational activities when that money is desperately needed to buy new ships and aircraft.

The Lammy Doctrine is wrong. The Indo-Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic are divisible militarily. The UK needs to avoid getting actively involved in a war in the Indo-Pacific.