OPINION POLL MISUSE

The recent Channel 4 special on Brexit worked itself into a state with a revelation of an opinion poll that showed that 54% of those surveyed now supported Remain and only 46% backed leaving the EU. One presumes that the ‘Don’t Knows/Undecideds’ were ignored.

This opinion poll was then cited by the programme as justification for a cancellation of Brexit, given that opinion had allegedly changed from the 52% against the 48% Brexit majority in the actual referendum vote.

This is a facile argument. It makes the mistake of pitching an opinion poll, minus the Don’t Knows/Undecideds, against the actual votes cast, and presented that as a change of opinion. It is no such thing. In fact, on the day of the referendum, the opinion polls showed that Remain were in the lead by around 54% against 46% (e.g. Ipsos Mori). Another poll put Remain on 48%, Leave on 42% and 11% as undecided. Remain were expected to win. They did not. They lost.

One consistency in opinion polls in recent years, and not just in Britain, is that they are materially understating the Right Wing vote.

Moreover, since the referendum there has been a clear majority who want the government to get on and get Brexit over with. This majority includes those who supported Remain. It does not follow at all that because someone believes in Remain that they also do not respect the referendum result, nor does it follow that they want either a cancellation of Brexit or another referendum.

The Channel 4 programme was pure propaganda – and not very clever propaganda at that. At best, all that the Channel 4 opinion poll proved is that there had been no change from the Ipsos Mori poll on the day of the vote, when the Leave campaign won.