ZERO-COVID BRITAIN

A recent editorial in a leading (Tory supporting) newspaper, entitled ‘Danger of pulling Up Britain’s drawbridge’, said:

‘We can’t deny entry to any Britons living abroad, or halt vital freight supplies, new variants are almost certain to slip through even the finest net. And when do we lift this self-imposed siege? There will always be mutations, so the logical answer is never. But shutting out the whole world indefinitely is simply untenable for an island nation whose prosperity depends on trade, openness and connectivity.

Good evidence exists that the vaccines can suppress these emerging variants, so ministers shouldn’t panic. Of course, if virulent new strains are identified abroad, it makes sense to bring in quarantine measures for anyone entering from those countries affected – a ‘whack-a-mole’ strategy, in Boris Johnson’s argot.

But if Britain pulls up the drawbridge until the planet is Covid-free or immune, it won’t just be aviation and tourism that crumble to dust, it will be the entire economy.’

Further, the editorial stated:

‘Of course, the discovery of new virus mutations on these shores is troubling. But thankfully, scientists are confident our vaccines will work against them. Mr Johnson must therefore continue plotting the path out of lockdown, rather than be seduced by advisers into pursuing an impossible “zero-Covid” strategy.’

A few days later the same newspaper contained an article entitled ‘… but Sage warns over fourth wave with 750 deaths a day’. That article highlighted the danger of a fourth wave in the autumn of 2021 with a further 130,800 deaths – even with a ‘high uptake of the vaccine’. The minutes from the Sage meeting stated: ‘Vaccines are not 100 per cent effective, and there will not be 100 per cent coverage.’ An ONS survey found that the likely uptake would be around 85 per cent, lower than the 95 per cent assumed in two studies presented to Sage.

One study, by the University of Warwick, assumed there would be a gradual easing of restrictions from the end of February to the beginning of September. They assumed that two doses of the Pfizer/Ntech would reduce symptomatic infections by 94 per cent and with two doses of the Astrazeneca/Oxford vaccine the reduction would be 88 per cent. Both vaccines were believed to cut transmission by 60 per cent, which led to the warning:

‘With the new aggressive Covid strain, likely transmission efficiencies prove insufficient to prevent further infection outbreaks across the population. This means that the proportion of individuals that do not accept the vaccine together with the proportion for whom it is ineffective in protecting, may still account for significant further severe disease even after the programme is completed. We see that even with the highest possible uptake and fastest vaccination programme, full relaxation by the time schools return in September would still result in significant further disease.’

The second study, by Professor Neil Ferguson and the Imperial College London, a phased easing of restrictions was assumed to be implemented between March and July. The study warned that it was vital to hit a vaccination target of 3million doses per week ‘to avoid exceeding national hospital capacity after the current wave’. This study predicted another 130,800 fatalities.

The NHS document entitled ‘Covid-19 Vaccination: a guide for older adults’ states: ‘Overall fewer than 1 in 100 people who are infected will die from Covid-19, but in those over 75 years of age this rises to 1 in 10.’

Recently, Chris Witty told the Commons science and technology committee:

‘What we are going to see as things are opening up – what all the modelling suggests – is that at some point we will get a surge in virus. We hope it doesn’t happen soon. It might, for example, happen later in the summer if we open up gradually or, because of the seasonal effect, it might happen over next autumn and winter. All the modelling suggests there is going to be a further surge and that will find the people who either have not been vaccinated or where the vaccine has not worked. Some of them will end up in hospital and sadly some of them will go on to die.’

In Response to Chris Witty, Sir Iain Duncan Smith said: ‘He seems to forget that the most vulnerable in society will be covered by the vaccine and this, in turn, will protect them from hospitalisation and death. I begin to wonder if the scientists ever want the economy to open up – yet without a functioning economy we will be unable to pay for all the expensive support packages.’

This week yet more cases of the Brazilian variant have been found in the UK, and yet another new variant has been discovered in a couple who had entered the UK from Antigua via Paris. In addition there is the dominant Kent strain (responsible for the majority of infections in the present wave), a variant of the Kent strain, and the South African strain. In Manaus, Brazil, the Brazilian variant was able to reinfect up to 60% of those who had already had Covid-19.

The current daily infection rate (mid-March) is around 6,000 compared to the peak of in excess of 60,000 in the current wave. The rate is estimated to be halving every fortnight primarily due to the lockdown. Experts have predicted a daily infection rate of 1,000 by mid-April – and therefore it should be down to around 500 by the end of April.

In setting out his pathway to end the lockdown, Boris Johnson said: ‘There is no credible route to a zero-Covid Britain. We cannot persist indefinitely with restrictions that debilitate our economy, our physical and mental wellbeing and the life chances of our children.’

With respect, Boris Johnson is wrong. The UK is already on the route to a zero-Covid Britain. Melbourne in Australia was locked down for 111 days after a serious outbreak; that lockdown was lifted after the city had had zero infections for four days. New Zealand has succeeded in its zero-Covid strategy, like Australia and many other countries. With Melbourne, an international tennis tournament was responsible for another outbreak of 13 new cases. The government immediately locked Melbourne down again to stamp the infection out.

Were the UK Government to show some determination, it could drive down the infection rate further and faster. It is known that 25% of hospital patients with Covid-19 caught the infection in hospital. Now that the vaccine is being rolled out, and with more comprehensive testing of hospital staff, then that should cease. It is known that certain areas in the UK are infection hotspots – eg the town of Corby. The Government could learn from China, which recently tested an entire province of 9million people in 5 days, and likewise test all those in identifiable hotspots and isolate those who are infected.

Moreover, the UK could bother to secure its borders. That foreign variants are freely entering the UK proves that the borders are not secure and the consequences of them not being so. It is a mighty big coincidence that the Kent variant emerged in a rural area (the Garden of England), which also happens to be receiving a never-ending stream of illegal immigrants bobbing across the English Channel on rubber dinghies. The Kent variant is not only more infectious but also more lethal.

From the very outset of the pandemic, the UK Government has been dead set against securing the borders (see here). An island has natural defences against unwanted incursions and those natural defences should be exploited. On television some commentators have asserted that people today are used to popping abroad at weekends and for travel, and that securing the borders is not possible. We are told that the UK is a ‘global hub’ which necessitates open borders (a Remainer argument and a globalist argument). This is all self-serving rubbish. Other countries have secured their borders. It can be done.

The Tories are opposed to a zero-Covid strategy not because it is impossible, but because they do not want to take the measures necessary for that strategy. The Tories want mass immigration, they want to settle millions of Hong Kong Chinese in England. They want to take off on foreign holidays yet again, despite the spread of infection that that caused in 2020 and despite the economic harm caused by people buying foreign holidays rather than British ones.

The Welsh First Minister pointed out: ‘The idea that we will have international travel back as it was before the middle of May fills me with horror really. Because I just think there is such a risk that it will lead to the reimportation of the virus just as we’ve all worked so hard to get it under control.’

By itself, the vaccine programme cannot eliminate Covid-19, as can be seen from above. Not everyone will take the vaccine and not all those who get it will enjoy immunity. The vaccine is not 100% effective. Assuming a 90% vaccine take up with a 90% effectiveness, then that would still leave around 20% of the population in danger of infection – around 13million people. With the virus spreading around freely, then those 13million will get infected and 130,000 will die (according to the NHS document referred to above, and the projections). The current total death toll is less than that, which means we are less than halfway through the pandemic. If a new more dangerous variant emerges amongst all this infectiousness, against which the vaccines are ineffective, then we will be in serious trouble.

The quickest and safest route out of lockdown is a zero-Covid strategy. That will require securing the borders, including an end to all unnecessary immigration, and comprehensive testing and/or quarantine for all entrants. It will require a more pro-active test and trace system (those consultants, whose average daily salaries are £1,100, with some getting up to £6,624, need to get off their arses). Any outbreak needs to be pounced upon to choke off any further spread of the infection.

The UK, with its plummeting infection rate and vaccination programme, needs to see the job through in 2021 rather than try and get back to the old ways of doing things as in 2020. To define a zero-Covid rate for the UK, then that would be a daily infection rate of between zero and 100 or so (ie dozens rather than tens of thousands). On the current trajectory, this is due to be achieved by the end of May, if not before.

We need to learn to live with secured borders and not to live with Covid-19.