MAIL-IN BALLOTS

If faith in the electoral process is to be maintained, then it is necessary for an election not only to be fair, but to be seen to be fair. There are measures that can be taken to address this. For example, scrutineers from the political parties are allowed into the count to monitor what is happening and to ensure that the ballots are valid and properly counted.

An important safeguard is to ensure that only valid votes are cast. Normally, a voter will turn up at the polling station on election day and cast their vote, anonymously behind a screen (to prevent intimidation), and that they have voted will be recorded (to ensure that they only vote once and that no one is voting using another’s name). For those who cannot get to a polling station (due to ill health or due to being abroad, for example) there is the option to request a postal ballot to allow that person a vote. Clearly, a postal ballot is less secure as there is a danger that someone else can get hold of and use the ballot, and there is the further danger of intimidation in that pressure can be applied to bully someone into voting as instructed.

In recent years, there has been a tendency for those on the Left to encourage postal voting. The reason given is that it increases the vote, as those otherwise disinclined to turn out to the polling station might be bothered to fill in the postal vote and post it. These people are more likely to vote for a Left-wing party. In the UK, anyone can apply for a postal vote without a reason. There have been a multitude of complaints of voting fraud, especially regarding immigrant communities (whose culture and home countries may have a different concept of what is acceptable or even of democracy itself).

In the current presidential election in the USA, things have gone further still. It would seem that several states of sent out unsolicited postal votes – mail-in ballots – to all and sundry. There are claims that some have received more than one.

For obvious reasons, unsolicited mail-in ballots to be sent to everyone on the electoral roll increases the risks of fraud. For example, those who have recently died will still get the mail-in ballots, and such ballots may be used by others.

In an election without any postal votes, with an electorate of – say – 20 million, then with a turnout of 60%, 12 million voters will arrive at the polling station, 12 million ballots will be issued and 12 million votes cast. If – say – 1 million request a postal vote, then there will be 1 million postal ballots issued via the mail and 11 million issued at the polling station. No doubt, some of those who request postal ballots will not use them and so there may be some unused postal ballots. With unsolicited mail-in ballots issued to all, then if 11 million vote at the polling station (who will therefore not use their mail-in ballots) and 1 million vote by mail-in ballots, then there is a surplus of 19 million unused mail-in ballots lying around. If the vote increases as those who would otherwise not be bothered use their mail-in ballots – say, another 1 million – then that will still leave 18 million unused main-in ballots lying around. If the mail-in ballots are further sent to anyone, including those not registered to vote, then the surplus will be greater still. There is also the danger that forged mail-in ballots will be manufactured. The potential for fraud is greatly increased.

What matters is whether any fraud is material. If the winning majority is 100,000 – say – and there are allegations of fraud amounting to a couple of dozen votes, then that is not material. If there are allegations of fraud amounting to tens of thousands then that is material, especially if the checking procedures are shown to be unreliable (as it means there are opportunities for other fraud and the vote cannot be deemed to be a true and fair outcome).

It may well be that the decision to send out unsolicited mail-in ballots was legal (there is a dispute about this), but that decision nonetheless altered the rules to favour the Democrats. In addition, there is now a multitude of claims of fraud and irregularities in key marginal states that will swing the outcome of the election. Scrutineers have not been able to properly oversee the counts.

Furthermore, allegations of fraud were flowing in even before the rather chaotic first presidential debate, in which the final question was concerned with mail-in ballots. The transcript is below:

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1:22:02 WALLACE

All right, gentlemen, final segment. Election integrity. As we meet tonight, millions of Americans are receiving mail-in ballots or going to vote early. How confident should we be that this will be a fair election and what are you prepared to do over the next five plus weeks, because it’ll not only be the election day but also counting some ballots mailing ballots after election day. What are you prepared to do to reassure the American people that the next President will be the legitimate winner of this election? In this final segment, Mr. Vice President, you go first.

1:22:41 BIDEN 

Prepared to let people vote. You should go to Iwillvote.com. Decide how they’re going to vote, when they’re going to vote and what means by which they’re going to vote. His own Homeland Security director, as well as the FBI director, says there’s no evidence at all that mail-in ballots are a source of being manipulated and cheating. They said that. The fact is that they’re going to be millions of people, because of COVID, that are going to be voting by mail-in ballots, like he does by the way. He sits behind the Resolute desk and sends his ballot to Florida, number one. Number two, we’re going to make sure that those people who want to vote in person are able to vote because enough poll watchers are there to make sure they can socially distance, the polls are open on time and they’ll pull stay open until the votes are counted. And this is all about trying to dissuade people from voting because he’s trying to scare people into thinking that it’s not gonna be legitimate. Show up and vote. You will determine the outcome of this election. Vote. Vote. Vote. If you’re able to vote early in your state, vote early. If you’re able to vote in person, vote in person. Vote whatever way is the best way for you because you will- He cannot stop you from being able to determine the outcome of this election. Whether or not when the votes are counted, and they’re all counted, that will be accepted. If I win, that will be accepted.If I lose, it will be accepted. But, by the way, if, in fact, he says he’s not sure what he’s gonna accept, let me tell you something, it doesn’t matter. Because if we get the votes, it’s going to be all over. He’s going to go. He won’t stay in power. It won’t happen. It won’t happen. So vote. Just make sure you understand you have it in your control to determine what this country is going to look like the next four years. Is it going to change or are we gonna get four more years of these lies?

1:24:31 WALLACE

Mr. President, two minutes. 

1:24:32 TRUMP

So when I listened to Joe talking about a transition, there’s been no transition from when I won. I won that election. And if you look at crooked Hillary Clinton, if you look at all of the different people, there was no transition. Because they came after me trying to do a coup. They came after me spying on my campaign. They started on the day I won and even before I won. From the day I came down the escalator with the First Lady, they were a disaster, a grace to our country. And we’ve caught them. We’ve caught them all. We’ve got it all on tape. We’ve caught them all. And by the way, you gave the idea for the Logan act against General Flynn. You better take a look at that because we caught you in a sense. And President Obama was sitting in the Oval office. He knew about it too so don’t tell me about a free transition. As far as the ballots is concerned, it’s a disaster. A solicited ballot. Okay, so listen it is okay. You’re soliciting, you’re asking they send it back, you send it back. I did that. If you have an unsolicited, they’re sending millions of ballots all over the country. There’s fraud. They found them in creeks. They found some with the name Trump, just happen to have the name Trump, just the other day. In wastepaper baskets. They’re being sent all over the place. They sent two, in a Democratic area they sent out 1000 ballots. Everybody got two ballots. This is going to be a fraud like you’ve never seen. The other thing, it’s nice for November 3, you’re watching and you see who won the election. And I think we’re gonna do well because people are really happy with the job they’ve done. But you know what, we won’t know, we might not know for months. Because these balances are going to be all over. Take a look at what happened in Manhattan. Take a look at what happened in New Jersey. Take a look at what happened in Virginia and other places. They’re not losing 2%, 1%, which by the way is too much. An election can be won or lost with that. They’re losing 30 and 40%. A fraud, and it’s a shame. And can you imagine where they say, ‘you have to have your ballot in by November 10’. November 10. That means 7 days after the election, in theory, should have been announced. We have major states with that. All run by Democrats. All run by Democrats. It’s a rigged election.

1:26:40 WALLACE

Okay, okay, sir. President Trump, you’re gonna be able to continue. You have been charging for months and mail-in balloting is going to be a disaster. You say it’s going to lead to fraud. But in 2018, the last midterm election, 3, million people voted mail-in voting. That was a quarter, more than a quarter, of all the voters that year cast their ballots by mail. Now that millions of mail-in ballots have gone out, what are you going to do about it? And are you counting on the Supreme Court, including a justice Barrett, to settle on a disputes?

1:27:17 TRUMP

Yeah, I think we’re getting them to look at the ballots, differently. I don’t think I want them in terms of the election itself, but for the ballots I’d say. Because what’s happening is incredible. I just heard, I read today where 1% of the ballots for 2016 were invalidated. They, they take them ‘we don’t like them. we don’t like them’.

1:27:36 WALLACE

There are millions of ballots going out right now.

1:27:39 TRUMP

You do a solicited ballot.

1:27:42 WALLACE

No, no, I’m asking you about the fact that millions of people —

1:27:46 TRUMP

You go and vote. You go and vote, like they used to do. You either do a solicited ballot, where you’re sending it in and sending it back in and your sending. We have mailmen with lots of a- Did you see what’s going on, take a look at West Virginia, mail-in ballots. They’re being sold. They’re being dumped in rivers. This is a horrible thing for our country. This is no — This is not going to end well.

1:28:12 BIDEN

There is no evidence of that. Five states have had mail-in ballots in the last decade or sol, including two republican states. And you don’t have to solicit the ballot. It’s sent to you, and sent to your home. All we’re saying is, they’re saying is, that there has to be a postmark, by the time by Election Day. If it just doesn’t get in until the seventh, eighth, ninth, it still should be counted. He’s just afraid of counting the votes because-

1:28:38 TRUMP

You’re wrong. You’re wrong

1:28:41 WALLACE

And I want to continue with you on this — Vice President Biden —

1:28:44 TRUMP

Chris, he’s so wrong when he makes a statement like that

1:28:45 WALLACE

Excuse me. Vice President Biden, the biggest problem, in fact, over the years, with mail-in voting has not been fraud, historically. It has been that sizable number, sometimes hundreds of thousands of ballots, are thrown out because they have not been properly filled out or there is some other irregularity they just see through that deadline. So the question I have is, are you concerned that the Supreme Court with a justice Barrett will settle any disputes?

1:29:12 BIDEN

I’m concerned that any court would settle this. Because here’s the deal, when you, when you get a ballot and you fill it out, you’re supposed to have an affidavit. If you didn’t know, you have someone say that this is me. You should be able to, if in fact you can verify that’s you when the, before the ballot is thrown out, that’s sufficient to be able to count the ballot, because someone made a mistake in not dotting the correct i. Who they voted for, testify, say who they voted for, say to you ‘that is totally legitimate’

1:29:46 WALLACE

Alright —

1:29:49 TRUMP

When you have 80 million ballots sent in and swamping the system — You know it can’t be done, you know it can’t.  And already there have been —

1:29:56 WALLACE

Alright, so wait a minute. Final question is, in eight states, election workers are prohibited, currently by law in eight states, from even beginning to process ballots, even take them out of the envelopes and flatten them, until Election Day. That means that it’s likely, because there’s going to be a huge increase in mail-in balloting, that we are not going to know on election night who the winner is. And it could be days, it could be weeks.

1:30:25 TRUMP

Could be months. 

1:30:28 WALLACE

— until we know who the new president is. So I first for you sir. Finally, for the, for the vice president. I hope neither of you will interrupt the other. Will you urge our supporters to stay calm during this extended period, not to engage in any civil unrest? Will you pledge tonight that you will not declare victory until the election has been independently certified? President Trump will go first.

1:30:54 TRUMP

I’m urging my supporters to go into the polls and watch very carefully because that’s what has to happen. I am urging them to do it. As you know, today there was a big problem. In Philadelphia, they went into watch, they were called poll watchers, a very safe very nice thing. They were thrown out. They weren’t allowed to watch. You know why? Because bad things happen in Philadelphia. Bad things. And I am urging, I am urging my people- I hope it’s gonna be a fair election. If it’s a fair election, I am 100% on board. But if I see 10s of thousands of ballots being manipulated. I can’t go along with that. 

1:32:31 WALLACE

Does that mean you are gonna tell your people to take to the streets? 

1:32:32 TRUMP

I’ll tell you what it means. It means you have a fraudulent election. You’re not equipped to, these people aren’t equipped to handle it, number one. Number two, they cheat. They cheat. Hey, they found balance in a wastepaper basket days ago and they all had the name, military fellas. They were military, they all had the name, Trump on them. You think that’s good?

1:31:51 WALLACE

Vice President Biden, final question for you. Will you urge your supporters to stay calm while the vote is counted? And will you pledge not to declare victory until the election is independently certified?

1:32:05 BIDEN

Yes. Here’s the deal, they count the ballots, as you pointed out some of these ballots in some states can’t even be open until Election Day. And if there’s thousands of ballots, it’s gonna take time to do it. And by the way, our military. They’ve been voting, by ballots since the end of the Civil War in effect. And that’s what’s happened gonna happen. Why was it not, why is it for them to somehow not fraudulent? It’s the same process. It’s honest. No one has established at all, that there is fraud related to mail-in ballots. That somehow it’s a fraudulent —

1:32:41 TRUMP

It’s already been established. Look at —

1:32:45 WALLACE

You had an opportunity to respond. Go ahead.

1:32:48 BIDEN

He has no idea what he’s talking about. Here’s the deal, the fact is, I will accept it and he will too. Because you know why? Because once the winner is declared, after all the, all the ballots are counted, all the votes are counted, that’ll be the end of it. That’ll be the end of it. And if it’s me, in fact, fine. And if it’s not me, I’ll support the outcome. And I’ll be a president, not just for the Democrats. I’ll be president for Democrats and Republicans. And this guy —

1:33:16 TRUMP

I want us to —

1:33:21 WALLACE

Gentlemen? Will you say that’s the end of it? This is the end of this debate. We’re going leave it there. To be continued in more debates as we move on. President Trump, Vice President Biden, it’s been an interesting hour and a half. I want to thank you both for participating in the first of three debates that you have agreed to engage in. We want to thank Case Western Reserve University, and the Cleveland Clinic for hosting this event. The next debate, sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates, will be one week from tomorrow. October 7 at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City. The two vice presidential nominees Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris will debate at 9pm Eastern that we hope you watch. Until then, thank you and good night.